Recent Event Highlights: New Prediction: By December 31, 2020, synthetic solar energy (fusion) will have been shown to be a technically feasible method of electrical power generation, by an experiment demonstrating a controlled fusion reaction producing more harnessable energy th, New Prediction: By 2050 Baidu.com will surpass Google.com and become world's number 1 search engine., Bet Judged: A profitable video-on-demand service aimed at consumers will offer 10,000 titles to 5 million subscribers by 2010., New Prediction: Technocrat will become a political party by 2020., New Prediction: By 2020, GE crops will be grown on 10 fold more acreage than they are today, will be widely accepted by consumers and will have clearly benefited the goals of sustainable agriculture, New Prediction: A nuclear explosive weapon will be used in war or terrorism., and 138 more...
Created by derek on Oct 23, 2008
Last updated: 10/01/10 at 09:08 AM
James P. Rutt has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "A nuclear explosive weapon will be used in war or terrorism."
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/longbets/~3/kl7sl_cA8vs/521
Stewart Brand has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "There will be a Chernobyl National Park by 2035."
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/longbets/~3/ipzX4GeWwlA/511
Stewart Brand has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "By the end of 2011 it will be clear that the world financial crisis of 2009 had no effect on the rate of urbanization in the developing world, but it led to growth of the informal economy in those countries and to increases in global crime."
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/longbets/~3/WC-SR607v4I/509
Michael S. Sherrod has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "By 2014 Twitter like products coupled with person mounted video cameras will allow people to lifecast every moment of their daily experience. Others in the community of users will be able to subscribe to the lives of those they wish to follow."
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/longbets/~3/MUdT1N9UuK4/480
Richard A. Ryals has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "If the LHC does not find the Higgs Boson or other "new physics", then Einstein's "last twenty years" will eventually be fully vindicated, including the most natural cosmological extension of general relativity to a finite, deterministic universe."
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/longbets/~3/JRxoSX-4Ga4/476
Rogier M. Sluimers has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "Somewhere before 2050 abortion on request and/or for socio-economic factors will be illegal worldwide."
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/longbets/~3/488022332/449
Michael H. Martin-Smith has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "By 2100, a small self-sustainable population will be living off this planet"
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/longbets/~3/478678680/448
Lux Veritas has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "By 2012, current venture capital- and privately-funded methods of DNA sequencing, independent of any additional “incremental improvements” will be made obsolete by the technology described in The Economist (October 25th - 31st 2008; US print edition, p.82) and at http://www.5bases.com."
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/longbets/~3/464174008/440
Lux Veritas has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "By 2012, current venture capital- and privately-funded methods of DNA sequencing, independent of any additional âincremental improvementsâ will be made obsolete by the technology described in The Economist (October 25th - 31st 2008; US print edition, p.82) and at http://www.5bases.com."
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/longbets/~3/5Km1EJxDdBE/440
Saul Kato has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "The End of Wheels: A country or state will ban the use of wheeled vehicles by private consumers on high capacity public roads."
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/longbets/~3/457744575/438
matt oesterle has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "advances in personal aviation will cause the cost of land in big sur, ca and other remote areas within 250mi of major metropolitan cities to at least triple within the next 15 years - outperforming the s&p 500 over that period."
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/longbets/~3/432864205/433
Rogier M. Sluimers has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "By 2025, The Aether Physics Model will not have replaced quantum physics and the theory of relativity as the standard model."
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/longbets/~3/442610560/432
Rogier M. Sluimers has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "By 2025, Stellar nucleosynthesis will no longer be considered as the main source of heat and light of stars by a majority of scientists."
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/longbets/~3/442610562/431
Rogier M. Sluimers has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "By 2025, Quantum field theory will no longer be part of The Standard Model of particle physics."
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/longbets/~3/442610566/429
Rogier M. Sluimers has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "By 2025, Albert Einstein's theory of relativity will be considered an untenable explanation for light and gravity by a majority of scientists."
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/longbets/~3/442600704/427
Charles G. Seife has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant -- a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid -- anywhere in the world."
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/longbets/~3/422947811/426
William P. Sheridan has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "I predict that THE HUMAN KNOWLEDGE MINDMAP will become the globally dominant knowledge paradigm by the year 2100."
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/longbets/~3/409510455/423
Florian Kunze has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "By the end of the 2016 Olympic Games, swimmer Michael Phelps will be convicted for doping at the 2008 Olympic Games."
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/longbets/~3/374528837/409
Jonathan M. Rothberg has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "By 2011 a mother will have the entire genome sequence of her unborn child from her own blood."
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/longbets/~3/369237950/405
Jonathan M. Rothberg has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "By 2015 the majority of people who make predictions on this site will have had their genomes sequenced."
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/longbets/~3/369237952/404
Jonathan M. Rothberg has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "Computers will become intelligent within my "lifetime" (or 50 years which ever is longer)"
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/longbets/~3/369237953/403
Tibor Pacher and Paul A. Gilster have agreed to a new Long Bet: "The first true interstellar mission, targeted at the closest star to the Sun or even farther, will be launched before or on December 6, 2025 and will be widely supported by the public."
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/longbets/~3/346077567/395
Thomas R. Leavens and Nils Gilman have agreed to a new Long Bet: "By the end of the year 2020, a professional sports team that is part of either the National Football League, the National Basketball Association, Major League Baseball, the National Hockey League, or Major League Soccer will integrate and have a woman as a team member/player."
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/longbets/~3/309817350/367
Thomas R. Leavens and Nils Gilman have agreed to a new Long Bet: "By the end of the year 2020, a professional sports team that is part of either the National Football League, the National Basketball Association, Major League Baseball, the National Hockey League, or Major League Soccer will integrate and have a woman as a team member/player."
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/longbets/~3/309817350/367
Joe Keane and Nick Damiano have agreed to a new Long Bet: "Large Hadron Collider will destroy Earth."
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/longbets/~3/323475215/382
Jack Scherer has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "Hurricanes in Florida will be less in 2005-2015, than the average of the preceding three decades"
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/longbets/~3/330939817/388
Online Casino Reports has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "There will be a casino on the moon by 2040."
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/longbets/~3/318347882/377
Wayne B. Hayes has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "On or before 8 June 2030, there will exist a computer language or programming system in which the prototypical first program, traditionally called "Hello, world!", will have an executable file whose size exceeds 1 gigabyte."
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/longbets/~3/313160744/371
Christoph M. Stahl has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "By 2018 the € will not be the legal currency of France, Italy and Germany."
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/longbets/~3/308314221/363
Christoph M. Stahl has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "By 2018 the ??? will not be the legal currency of France, Italy and Germany."
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/longbets/~3/308314221/363
Warren Buffett and Protege Partners, LLC have agreed to a new Long Bet: "Over a ten-year period commencing on January 1, 2008, and ending on December 31, 2017, the S & P 500 will outperform a portfolio of funds of hedge funds, when performance is measured on a basis net of fees, costs and expenses."
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/longbets/~3/307982322/362
Franklin G. Forbin and Jane Walter have agreed to a new Long Bet: "In 2108, an independent, sentient artificial intelligence will exist as a corporation, both providing its services as well as making all financial and strategic decisions."
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/longbets/~3/306416314/360
Engelman Laura has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "The hiding function works."
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/longbets/~3/305873733/358
Martin G. Tobias has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "In 2010 more diesel passenger vehicles will be sold in the US than hybrids."
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/longbets/~3/305873734/354
Jason W. Galbraith and Sam Stigler have agreed to a new Long Bet: "Neither major U. S. political party will hold conventions or indeed primaries to select their 2012 Presidential nominees."
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/longbets/~3/305873735/291
Jason W. Galbraith has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "Roe v. Wade will not celebrate a 50th anniversary."
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/longbets/~3/305873738/347
Barry J. Benjamin has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "The U.S. will not pull all of its troops out of Iraq until the 10 largest corporations in the U.S. use their influence to make it happen. I don't see this as a possibility until after Nov. 9, 2010 the next mid-term elections."
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/longbets/~3/305873739/346
Adrian Bowyer has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "Self-replicating manufacturing machines will be commonplace by 2020."
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/longbets/~3/305873740/345
Joerg W. Schwieder has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "Patents will be abolished by at least two leading economies within the next 20 years for all areas except pharmaceuticals."
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/longbets/~3/305873741/343
Matthias Brust-Braun has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "By 2061 science and technology will meet all the essential requirements for interstellar space travel based on the embryo space colonization concept; the core element of this prediction is the cryopreservation of human embryos allowing them to survive for a very long time."
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/longbets/~3/305873742/341
The Long Now Foundation has judged a Long Bet between Dave Winer and Martin Nisenholtz: "In a Google search of five keywords or phrases representing the top five news stories of 2007, weblogs will rank higher than the New York Times' Web site."
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/longbets/~3/GbZbuf4ukNc/2
S. G. RAJEEV has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "No substantial departure from the standard model of elementary particle physics will be discovered in experiments by the year 2015. `Substantial' departures include supersymmetry, extra dimensions of space-time, techni-color models of Higgs bosons, and compositeness of quarks and gluons but NOT additional Higgs bosons, families of particles or neutrino masses. Theoretical advances in understanding the hierarchy problem are not `substantial' experimental departures in this sense, but can lead to profound new understanding."
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/longbets/~3/305873744/328
Dan Gregerson has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "Science believes consciousness descends from matter; religion believes matter descends from consciousness. Both propositions will be discovered to false within 50 years."
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/longbets/~3/305873745/325
Sean Park has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "That the average level of innovation between 2025 and 2035 exceeds the average level of innovation of the past 5 years (2002-2007.) I suggest using metrics as determined and published by the US Dept of Commerce, Economics & Statistics Administration as developed by the
Measuring Innovation in the 21st Century Economy Advisory Committee (www.innovationmetric.gov) but am open to alternative suggestions."
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/longbets/~3/x3etI2eazVs/321
Sean Park has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "That the average level of innovation between 2025 and 2035 exceeds the average level of innovation of the past 5 years (2002-2007.) I suggest using metrics as determined and published by the US Dept of Commerce, Economics & Statistics Administration as developed by the
Measuring Innovation in the 21st Century Economy Advisory Committee (www.innovationmetric.gov) but am open to alternative suggestions."
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/longbets/~3/305873746/321
The Long Now Foundation has judged a Long Bet between Steven B. Kurtz and Patrick C. Burns: "The annual average cost between 2003 and Dec 31 2005 of the total retail price (commercial and residential) per Kilowatthour of electricity in the United States will rise as calculated by the U.S. Departmentof Energy in chained (inflation-adjusted) U.S. dollars."
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/longbets/~3/ohbAD2UQ5bY/117
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